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Italy

Serie A

Italy · Tier 1

Serie A is the top flight in Italy. Golviva puts the combined value of its 20 clubs at €5.9B. Below, every team ranked by our own squad value, each player compared with his market price, and the players we rate furthest from it.

Total value
€5.9B
Market value
€6.1B
Clubs
20
Players
579
Season projection

Serie A predicted table: title and relegation chances

Golviva's model plays the 270 remaining matches out 10,000 times. Most likely champions: Inter (74%).

  • 1
    Inter
    28 pts → 84
    Title
    74%
    Champions League
    99%
    Relegation
    –
  • 2
    AS Roma
    27 pts → 77
    Title
    18%
    Champions League
    89%
    Relegation
    –
  • 3
    Como
    23 pts → 70
    Title
    3%
    Champions League
    57%
    Relegation
    –
  • 4
    Lazio
    29 pts → 69
    Title
    3%
    Champions League
    51%
    Relegation
    –
  • 5
    AC Milan
    24 pts → 69
    Title
    3%
    Champions League
    52%
    Relegation
    –
  • 6
    Juventus
    18 pts → 65
    Title
    1%
    Champions League
    29%
    Relegation
    –
  • 7
    Napoli
    15 pts → 62
    Title
    <1%
    Champions League
    15%
    Relegation
    –
  • 8
    Atalanta
    14 pts → 56
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    3%
    Relegation
    <1%
  • 9
    Bologna
    17 pts → 56
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    3%
    Relegation
    <1%
  • 10
    Frosinone
    20 pts → 55
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    3%
    Relegation
    <1%
  • 11
    Fiorentina
    9 pts → 48
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    <1%
    Relegation
    2%
  • 12
    Cagliari
    16 pts → 46
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    3%
  • 13
    Genoa
    13 pts → 46
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    4%
  • 14
    Torino
    14 pts → 45
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    4%
  • 15
    Sassuolo
    8 pts → 39
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    22%
  • 16
    Lecce
    10 pts → 35
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    48%
  • 17
    Parma
    8 pts → 35
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    47%
  • 18
    Udinese
    5 pts → 34
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    53%
  • 19
    Monza
    7 pts → 33
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    58%
  • 20
    Venezia
    6 pts → 33
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    59%

Every remaining match is drawn from Golviva's match model (team strength from recent results and xG) and the season is replayed 10,000 times; ties on points go by goal difference. Our model's probabilities, for information only and not betting advice: Golviva does not offer, accept or arrange bets and is not affiliated with any betting operator. Updated Nov 9, 12:15 PM.

Clubs in order of squad value

Against the market

Where we part ways with the market

Our values start from the market price and move away from it only on evidence. For Serie A, these are the players where the evidence pulls furthest, up or down.

Worth more than the price

Our value is above the market's: age, output or contract suggest the price hasn't caught up yet.

Priced above our value

The market asks more than our estimate: the evidence points to a lower value.

Under-21s on the rise

Players under 21 whose age lifts our value: young players' prices and fees usually keep rising.