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France

Ligue 1

France · Tier 1

Ligue 1 is the top flight in France. Golviva puts the combined value of its 18 clubs at €4.3B. Below, every team ranked by our own squad value, each player compared with his market price, and the players we rate furthest from it.

Total value
€4.3B
Market value
€4.2B
Clubs
18
Players
485
Season projection

Ligue 1 predicted table: title and relegation chances

Golviva's model plays the 216 remaining matches out 10,000 times. Most likely champions: Paris Saint Germain (91%).

  • 1
    Paris Saint Germain
    23 pts → 74
    Title
    91%
    Champions League
    99%
    Relegation
    –
  • 2
    Lille
    21 pts → 60
    Title
    4%
    Champions League
    55%
    Relegation
    –
  • 3
    Marseille
    18 pts → 57
    Title
    2%
    Champions League
    37%
    Relegation
    –
  • 4
    Monaco
    16 pts → 55
    Title
    1%
    Champions League
    27%
    Relegation
    –
  • 5
    Lyon
    17 pts → 55
    Title
    1%
    Champions League
    25%
    Relegation
    –
  • 6
    Paris FC
    20 pts → 55
    Title
    1%
    Champions League
    23%
    Relegation
    –
  • 7
    Lens
    13 pts → 52
    Title
    <1%
    Champions League
    14%
    Relegation
    –
  • 8
    Rennes
    16 pts → 50
    Title
    <1%
    Champions League
    7%
    Relegation
    <1%
  • 9
    Nice
    17 pts → 48
    Title
    <1%
    Champions League
    3%
    Relegation
    <1%
  • 10
    Toulouse
    13 pts → 47
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    3%
    Relegation
    <1%
  • 11
    Stade Brestois 29
    15 pts → 47
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    3%
    Relegation
    <1%
  • 12
    Lorient
    15 pts → 45
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    2%
    Relegation
    1%
  • 13
    Strasbourg
    10 pts → 45
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    1%
    Relegation
    1%
  • 14
    Auxerre
    10 pts → 35
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    16%
  • 15
    Le Mans
    8 pts → 33
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    29%
  • 16
    Estac Troyes
    8 pts → 32
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    31%
  • 17
    Angers
    8 pts → 29
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    54%
  • 18
    Le Havre
    2 pts → 27
    Title
    –
    Champions League
    –
    Relegation
    68%

Every remaining match is drawn from Golviva's match model (team strength from recent results and xG) and the season is replayed 10,000 times; ties on points go by goal difference. Our model's probabilities, for information only and not betting advice: Golviva does not offer, accept or arrange bets and is not affiliated with any betting operator. Updated Nov 9, 12:15 PM.

Clubs in order of squad value

Against the market

Where we part ways with the market

Our values start from the market price and move away from it only on evidence. For Ligue 1, these are the players where the evidence pulls furthest, up or down.

Worth more than the price

Our value is above the market's: age, output or contract suggest the price hasn't caught up yet.

Priced above our value

The market asks more than our estimate: the evidence points to a lower value.

Under-21s on the rise

Players under 21 whose age lifts our value: young players' prices and fees usually keep rising.