Premier League
England · Tier 1
Premier League is the top flight in England. Golviva puts the combined value of its 20 clubs at €13.6B. Below, every team ranked by our own squad value, each player compared with his market price, and the players we rate furthest from it.
Premier League predicted table: title and relegation chances
Golviva's model plays the 280 remaining matches out 10,000 times. Most likely champions: Arsenal (80%).
- Title80%Champions League>99%Relegation–
- Title13%Champions League91%Relegation–
- Title4%Champions League75%Relegation–
- Title3%Champions League69%Relegation–
- Title<1%Champions League22%Relegation<1%
- Title<1%Champions League18%Relegation<1%
- Title<1%Champions League8%Relegation1%
- Title–Champions League4%Relegation2%
- Title–Champions League4%Relegation2%
- Title–Champions League3%Relegation3%
- Title–Champions League3%Relegation4%
- Title–Champions League1%Relegation8%
- Title–Champions League1%Relegation11%
- Title–Champions League1%Relegation12%
- Title–Champions League<1%Relegation15%
- Title–Champions League<1%Relegation30%
- Title–Champions League<1%Relegation34%
- Title–Champions League<1%Relegation35%
- Title–Champions League–Relegation71%
- Title–Champions League–Relegation74%
Every remaining match is drawn from Golviva's match model (team strength from recent results and xG) and the season is replayed 10,000 times; ties on points go by goal difference. Our model's probabilities, for information only and not betting advice: Golviva does not offer, accept or arrange bets and is not affiliated with any betting operator. Updated Nov 9, 12:15 PM.
Clubs in order of squad value
- 1
Manchester CitySquad value€1.5BAvg age25.1 - 2
Arsenal FCSquad value€1.3BAvg age26.1 - 3
Chelsea FCSquad value€1.2BAvg age24 - 4
Liverpool FCSquad value€1.1BAvg age25.1 - 5
Manchester UnitedSquad value€857.5MAvg age25.8 - 6
Tottenham HotspurSquad value€782.9MAvg age26.1 - 7
Brighton & Hove AlbionSquad value€688.8MAvg age24.8 - 8
Newcastle UnitedSquad value€675.5MAvg age25.6 - 9
Brentford FCSquad value€613.9MAvg age24.6 - 10
AFC BournemouthSquad value€609.1MAvg age25.4 - 11
Aston VillaSquad value€604.2MAvg age25.6 - 12
Crystal PalaceSquad value€546.5MAvg age26.2 - 13
Nottingham ForestSquad value€521.8MAvg age26.7 - 14
Sunderland AFCSquad value€443MAvg age25.4 - 15
Leeds UnitedSquad value€417.8MAvg age27 - 16
Everton FCSquad value€411.2MAvg age26.1 - 17
Fulham FCSquad value€387.5MAvg age26.3 - 18
Ipswich TownSquad value€373.2MAvg age26.9 - 19
Hull CitySquad value€302.4MAvg age25.8 - 20
Coventry CitySquad value€302.2MAvg age26.7
Where we part ways with the market
Our values start from the market price and move away from it only on evidence. For Premier League, these are the players where the evidence pulls furthest, up or down.
Worth more than the price
Our value is above the market's: age, output or contract suggest the price hasn't caught up yet.
Priced above our value
The market asks more than our estimate: the evidence points to a lower value.
Under-21s on the rise
Players under 21 whose age lifts our value: young players' prices and fees usually keep rising.














